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The world has been badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 42.7 million confirmed cases and over 1.1 million deaths as of Octo(Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center 2020), and the number of cases is still growing. These findings raise concerns that the pandemic could worsen under the climate-change framework. In contrast, cases would tend to increase by 10.9% from 2040 to 2059 with a representative concentration pathway (RCP) of 4.5 and by 7.5% at an RCP of 8.5, relative to 2020, though reductions of 1.8% and 18.9% were projected for 2080–2099 for the same RCPs, respectively. Despite the negative effects of heat, we found that rising temperatures induced by climate change are unlikely to contain a hypothesized pandemic in the future. Our results also suggest an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and confirmed cases. A one-hour increase in temperatures from 25 ☌ to 28 ☌ tends to reduce daily cases by 15.1%, relative to such an increase from −2 ☌ to 1 ☌. We found a significant negative relationship between temperatures and caseload. More importantly, we combine the baseline estimates with climate-change projections from 21 global climate models to understand the pandemic in different scenarios. In this paper, we attempt to examine this question by employing a flexible econometric model coupled with fine-scaled hourly temperature variations and a rich set of covariates for 291 cities in the Chinese mainland. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to expand, while the relationship between weather conditions and the spread of the virus remains largely debatable. These authors contributed equally to this work and should be considered co-first authors.Īuthor to whom any correspondence should be addressed. The Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing 100038, People's Republic of China School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, People's Republic of China Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, Peking University/ Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100191, People's Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, People's Republic of Chinaĭepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, People's Republic of China Center for Sustainable Development and Energy Policy Research, School of Energy and Mining Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, People's Republic of Chinaĭepartment of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, United States of Americaĭepartment of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's Republic of China